El Banco Central de Reserva (BCR) elevó su tasa de interés de referencia en 25 puntos básicos, de 4,25% a 4,50%, en su primer aumento desde enero de 2023. La decisión buscó propiciar el retorno de la inflación al rango meta, ante fuertes choques de oferta, expectativas de inflación por encima de ese rango y un alto dinamismo de la demanda interna.
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“Como la demanda está tan buena, si subo un poco mis precios, no voy a perder mi participación de mercado”, explicó.
Marco Ortiz, profesor asociado al Departamento de Economía de la Universidad del Pacífico, sostuvo que el encarecimiento de la energía afectaba los costos de producción de casi toda la economía. Advirtió que, si las personas empezaban a esperar más inflación, recuperar el control de esas expectativas resultaría más costoso.
“Estamos poniendo en la balanza subir la tasa ahora versus subirla después, más veces después”, afirmó.
En un hilo publicado en la red social X, Ortiz también planteó que una caída del PBI no descartaba la necesidad de elevar la tasa. Explicó que, si un choque reducía la capacidad de producción más que la demanda, podían persistir presiones sobre los precios incluso con una menor actividad económica.
Ortiz reconoció que una tasa más alta tenía costos sobre la actividad, aunque consideró que el efecto de una subida moderada sobre el crecimiento sería pequeño.
“Encarece el crédito, enfría en algo el consumo y la inversión, y el empleo se recupera un poco más lento”, señaló.
Ortiz precisó que la política monetaria puede moderar o estimular temporalmente la actividad, pero no generar crecimiento económico de largo plazo.
Una tasa más alta encarece el crédito y modera el consumo y la inversión, explicó Marco Ortiz.
/ MANUEL MELGAR
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El BCR precisó que su decisión no implicaba necesariamente el inicio de un ciclo de alzas sucesivas. Señaló que evaluará la inflación subyacente, las expectativas, la actividad económica y la duración de los choques de oferta para determinar si son necesarias modificaciones adicionales de la tasa.
Sobre el dólar, Perea indicó que una subida de la tasa peruana podía generar cierta tendencia a la baja del tipo de cambio. Sin embargo, consideró que el diferencial con Estados Unidos era secundario para las decisiones de política monetaria, porque el BCR disponía de otros instrumentos para intervenir en el mercado cambiario.
“No subordina las decisiones de política monetaria a lo que ocurra en Estados Unidos”, sostuvo.
Los especialistas coincidieron en que subir la tasa y aumentar el gasto público para atender a los afectados por El Niño podían ser medidas compatibles. Perea señaló que la ayuda debía dirigirse a quienes más la necesitan, mientras que Ortiz propuso destinar recursos a reconstrucción, bonos para trabajadores afectados y garantías ante dificultades para pagar créditos.
Por su parte, Waldo Mendoza, exministro de Economía, sostuvo en un hilo publicado en X que una subida de tasas podía moderar el gasto privado y compensar el mayor gasto público en reconstrucción. Si ambas medidas se calibraban adecuadamente, cambiaría la composición de la demanda sin aumentar su nivel total ni añadir presiones inflacionarias por esa vía, explicó.
Conforme a los criterios de
Tipo de trabajo:
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let previousMessagesScrollTop=messages?messages.scrollTop:0;const updateScrollButton=()=>{if(!messages||!scrollBottomButton)return;const currentScrollTop=messages.scrollTop;const hasOverflow=messages.scrollHeight>messages.clientHeight+1;const distanceFromBottom=messages.scrollHeight-currentScrollTop-messages.clientHeight;if(currentScrollTop
const MAX_QUERY_LENGTH=1200;const validateChatQuery=text=>{const normalized=text.trim();if(!normalized)return{valid:false,reason:’empty’};if(Array.from(normalized).length<3)return{valid:false,reason:’min-length’};if(!/[p{L}p{N}]/u.test(normalized))return{valid:false,reason:’no-letters-or-numbers’};if(normalized.length>MAX_QUERY_LENGTH)return{valid:false,reason:’max-length’};return{valid:true,text:normalized};};const getQueryValidationMessage=reason=>reason===’empty’?’Escribe una pregunta para Merlín.’:reason===’min-length’?’Escribe al menos 3 caracteres para que Merlín pueda ayudarte.’:reason===’no-letters-or-numbers’?’Incluye al menos una letra o un número. Puedes usar signos, tildes y emojis.’:’Tu pregunta puede tener hasta 1200 caracteres. Acórtala un poco para enviarla.’;
const characterCounter=widget.querySelector(‘[data-merlin-widget-counter]’);const updateCharacterCounter=()=>{if(status&&!status.hidden)setStatus(»);if(!characterCounter)return;const atLimit=input.value.length>=MAX_QUERY_LENGTH;characterCounter.hidden=!atLimit;if(atLimit)characterCounter.textContent=»Límite alcanzado: «+MAX_QUERY_LENGTH+’ caracteres.’;};input.addEventListener(‘input’,updateCharacterCounter);const closeMenu=()=>{if(!menu||!moreButton)return;menu.hidden=true;moreButton.setAttribute(‘aria-expanded’,’false’);};moreButton?.addEventListener(‘click’,()=>{if(!menu)return;menu.hidden=!menu.hidden;moreButton.setAttribute(‘aria-expanded’,String(!menu.hidden));if(!menu.hidden){const firstMenuItem=menu.querySelector(‘a[href], button’);firstMenuItem?.focus();}});clearButton?.addEventListener(‘click’,async()=>{if(isSending)return;if(messages){messages.replaceChildren(…initialMessages.map(message=>message.cloneNode(true)));messages.scrollTop=0;updateScrollButton();}input.value=»»;setStatus(»);closeMenu();const profile=getAuthProfile();if(profile)markConversationCleared(profile);if(profile&&session){setSendingState(true);try{conversationId=null;loadedConversationId=null;try{socket?.close();}catch(error){}socket=null;socketConversationId=null;conversationId=await createConversation(session,profile);loadedConversationId=conversationId;const context={profile,session};openSocket(context,conversationId).catch(()=>undefined);setStatus(»);}catch(error){setStatus(‘No se pudo limpiar el chat. Intenta nuevamente.’);}finally{setSendingState(false);}}else if(profile){conversationId=null;loadedConversationId=null;}else conversationId=null;input.focus();});
form?.addEventListener(‘submit’,async event=>{event.preventDefault();const validation=validateChatQuery(input.value);if(isSending)return;if(!validation.valid){setStatus(getQueryValidationMessage(validation.reason));input.focus();return;}const text=validation.text;activeReportQuestion=text;activeReportRequestId=String(Date.now());pushAnalytics({event:’merlin_search_query’,search_term:text,query_type:’manual’,query_location:’widget’});setSendingState(true);const requestIdentityGeneration=identityGeneration;let authError=null;const context=await authenticate().catch(error=>{authError=error;setStatus(error instanceof Error?error.message:’No se pudo conectar con Merlín.’);return null;});if(requestIdentityGeneration!==identityGeneration)return;if(!context){setSendingState(false);if(!getAuthProfile()&&!authError)requestPianoLogin();return;}setStatus(»);activeRequestStartedAt=Date.now();shouldFollowResponse=true;activeRequestEntryIds=new Set();lastCompletedResponse=»»;responseAnimationFinished=false;const sentMessage=renderMessage(text,’user’);shouldFollowResponse=true;messages?.querySelector(‘.merlin-widget__message–intro’)?.remove();showThinking(undefined,sentMessage,’smooth’);input.value=»»;try{if(!conversationId)conversationId=await findConversation(context.session,context.profile);if(requestIdentityGeneration!==identityGeneration)return;const timeline=await getTimeline(context.session,conversationId);if(requestIdentityGeneration!==identityGeneration)return;activeRequestEntryIds=new Set(timeline.map(entry=>entry&&entry.id).filter(Boolean));saveCachedHistory(context.profile,conversationId);await devrevFetch(context.session,’/timeline-entries.create’,{method:’POST’,body:JSON.stringify({object:conversationId,type:’timeline_comment’,body:text})});if(requestIdentityGeneration!==identityGeneration)return;const deadline=activeRequestStartedAt+RESPONSE_TIMEOUT;let completedEntry=null;let pollInterval=RESPONSE_POLL_INTERVAL;while(Date.now()
input.addEventListener(‘keydown’,event=>{if(event.key!==’Enter’||event.shiftKey||event.isComposing)return;event.preventDefault();if(form&&typeof form.requestSubmit===’function’){form.requestSubmit();}else if(submit){submit.click();}});menu?.querySelector(‘a[href]’)?.addEventListener(‘click’,closeMenu);document.addEventListener(‘click’,event=>{const target=event.target;if(target instanceof Node&&menu&&moreButton&&!menu.contains(target)&&!moreButton.contains(target)){closeMenu();}});dialog.addEventListener(‘cancel’,event=>event.preventDefault());dialog.addEventListener(‘keydown’,event=>{if(event.key===’Escape’){event.preventDefault();if(menu&&!menu.hidden){closeMenu();moreButton?.focus();}return;}if(event.key!==’Tab’)return;const focusable=Array.from(dialog.querySelectorAll(‘a[href], button:not(:disabled), textarea:not(:disabled)’)).filter(element=>!element.closest(‘[hidden]’));const first=focusable[0];const last=focusable[focusable.length-1];if(event.shiftKey&&document.activeElement===first){event.preventDefault();last.focus();}else if(!event.shiftKey&&document.activeElement===last){event.preventDefault();first.focus();}});dialog.addEventListener(‘close’,()=>{trigger.setAttribute(‘aria-expanded’,’false’);trigger.setAttribute(‘aria-label’,’Abrir chat con Merlín IA’);closeMenu();trigger.focus();});});};if(document.readyState===’loading’){document.addEventListener(‘DOMContentLoaded’,initializeWidgets,{once:true});return;}initializeWidgets();})();
(()=>{const tooltip=document.querySelector(«[data-merlin-widget-tooltip]»);const widget=document.querySelector(«[data-merlin-widget]»);const trigger=widget?.querySelector(«[data-merlin-widget-trigger]»);const closeButton=tooltip?.querySelector(«[data-merlin-widget-tooltip-close]»);if(!tooltip||!trigger||!closeButton||tooltip.dataset.initialized)return;const start=Number(tooltip.dataset.start);const end=Number(tooltip.dataset.end);const stateKey=window.location.pathname+»|story»;const existingState=window.__MERLIN_TOOLTIP_STATE__;const state=existingState?.key===stateKey?existingState:{key:stateKey,presented:false,dismissed:false};if(existingState?.tooltip&&existingState.tooltip!==tooltip){existingState.tooltip.dispatchEvent(new Event(«merlin-tip-destroy»))}state.tooltip=tooltip;window.__MERLIN_TOOLTIP_STATE__=state;tooltip.dataset.initialized=»true»;const globalDismissKey=»ec-merlin-tutorial-dismissed»;let userDismissKey=»»;let destroyed=false;let dismissed=state.dismissed||tooltip.dataset.dismissed===»true»;let presented=state.presented||tooltip.dataset.presented===»true»;let activeTrigger=null;let presentationTimer=null;let frame=0;let scheduleTimer=null;const mediaQuery=window.matchMedia(«(min-width: 1024px)»);const listeners=[];const clamp=(value,min,max)=>Math.max(min,Math.min(value,max));const listen=(target,eventName,handler,options)=>{target.addEventListener(eventName,handler,options);listeners.push(()=>target.removeEventListener(eventName,handler,options))};const hasCookie=key=>{try{return document.cookie.split(«;»).some(cookie=>cookie.trim()===key+»=1″)}catch(_error){return false}};const hasStorageValue=key=>{try{return window.localStorage.getItem(key)===»1″}catch(_error){return false}};const isDismissed=()=>hasStorageValue(globalDismissKey)||hasCookie(globalDismissKey)||Boolean(userDismissKey&&(hasStorageValue(userDismissKey)||hasCookie(userDismissKey)));const persistDismissal=()=>{const keys=userDismissKey?[globalDismissKey,userDismissKey]:[globalDismissKey];keys.forEach(key=>{try{window.localStorage.setItem(key,»1″)}catch(_error){}try{document.cookie=key+»=1; Path=/; SameSite=Lax; Max-Age=31536000″}catch(_error){}})};const hideTooltip=()=>{tooltip.hidden=true;tooltip.classList.remove(«merlin-widget__tooltip–visible»,»merlin-widget__tooltip–above»);if(activeTrigger)activeTrigger.removeAttribute(«aria-describedby»);window.clearTimeout(presentationTimer);presentationTimer=null};const isCampaignActive=()=>!destroyed&&!dismissed&&Number.isFinite(start)&&Number.isFinite(end)&&Date.now()>=start&&Date.now()